A geospatial retrospective study of African swine fever spread in Serbia (2019–2025) in domestic pig and wild boar population

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been posing a significant threat to pig production and wildlife management in the Republic of Serbia since its first detection in 2019. The goal of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal spread of ASF in both domestic and wild pig populations in Serbia from the initial outbreak in the summer of 2019 through May 2025. Additionally, the study aimed to map the risk of ASF in the domestic pig sector to identify the areas where enhanced biosecurity measures could improve future disease control efforts. The analysis is based on official data obtained from the Serbian Veterinary Directorate, specifically from issued decisions related to all affected settlements and hunting grounds where ASF was confirmed. The data on the number of disease outbreaks used in the study are official records submitted to the European Commission through the Animal Diseases Information System for the 2019– 2025 period. Between 2019 and 2025, the spread of ASF in Serbia followed a distinct trajectory, moving from the southeastern regions toward the northwest, ultimately reaching the West Bačka District in Vojvodina in 2025. The disease demonstrates distinct seasonal dynamics: in domestic pigs, the majority of outbreaks occur during summer months, with an additional peak observed in November and December, while in wild boars the number of cases increases during the winter period. ASF is showing signs of becoming endemic in Serbia. The implemented control strategies have largely been reactive rather than preventive, demonstrating limited effectiveness in altering the overall trajectory of the epidemic. The principal risk factors contributing to the spread of ASFin Serbia are linked to the continued circulation of the virus between domestic pig and wild boar populations, predominantly driven by human activities associated with both animal groups.