Brojnost i modeliranje kućnog komarca (Culex pipiens L.) i bolest Zapadnog Nila

Abstract

The paper presents the results of monitoring the population of the house mosquito (Culex pipiens Linnaeus, 1758), the vector of the West Nile virus (WNV), from 2000 to 2022. These results were used to discover parameters of WNV circulation. The same data was then utilized to model the house mosquito population and assess the risk of West Nile disease for all districts in Serbia until the year 2100. Also, we want to point out the importance of continuous and frequent entomological surveillance. The larvae were meticulously monitored daily during the development of 16 generations under natural conditions. Adults were collected with precision using dry ice traps during 9,131 weekly and daily samplings, ensuring the accuracy of our data. We have proved that the circulation of WNV in nature (grouping of infected mosquitoes, birds, horses, and people and the frequency of occurrence in the same places) is influenced by the microclimatic temperature characteristics of the sampling site. Additionally, we have identified both an indirect correlation (through the average values of the vector index) and a direct positive correlation between the vector abundance and the number of human cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease. By introducing a dynamically structured matrix population model to describe insect development, we have demonstrated the extent to which random environmental variation causes fluctuations in developmental stages and rates. The model replicated the abundance patterns observed in nature, as well as the start and end times of all developmental stages, and the maximum production of adults, regardless of the time of year. Risk and vulnerability analyses for Cx. pipiens biotype pipiens and Cx. pipiens biotype molestus and model outputs for the period 2071–2100 for the medium emissions scenario, RCP45, predict that all districts in Serbia are expected to be exposed to the highest risk of WNV transmission by the end of the century (MCDA index 75-100). The approaches we have described supplement existing methods for designing and analysing life tables and risk modelling. They can be applied not only to the most important vector species of Diptera (Phlebotominae, Culicidae, and Simuliidae) but also to insect pests in agriculture.